Difficult Israel Security Assessment Appraisal From Dr. Mordechai Keidar

The pretext will proclaim the duty of the Muslim world to ‘save the Al-Aqsa Mosque’ from the ‘Israeli occupation and oppression’. A staged, comprehensive, integrated and coordinated attack on Israel will be conducted from Iran. The first phase will be a shower of missiles and UAVs from all the aforementioned arenas together, and the Iranian estimate is that the stock of interceptors of the “Iron Dome” will run out within two to three hours from the start of the air attack, after which the Israeli skies will be open and the air force will be damaged and grounded.

The first phase, the air, will be accompanied by a cyberattack on Israeli infrastructure systems. After a full day of a cyberattack and a rain of missiles and UAVs that will hit air force bases, navy bases, army bases, electricity, computing, communication, road and water infrastructures, the second phase will begin: a coordinated ground attack from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza by infantry, mounted forces On dirt bikes and ATVs, equipped with anti-tank weapons, they will cross the obstacles and attack the Israeli ground forces in order to reach Jewish settlements as quickly as possible.

The calculation of the Iranians is that the mobilization of the reserves will take several days and at most will be partial because of the mess that will be created throughout the country. IDF reinforcements will not arrive in time to the various fronts and therefore the regular forces will collapse within hours in the face of the ground attack as happened in the Canal and the Golan during the Y​om Kippur War. The invasion of ground forces from Syria, Lebanon and Gaza will focus on Israeli settlements with the aim of demoralizing the Israeli public and forcing the government to surrender in order to save the lives of the many Israelis who will be captured by the Arab and Iranian militias. 

It is not clear what role the Iranians ascribe to the Palestinians in the war. However, it is likely that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will push them to do everything in their power to harm Jews, the army, the police and civilians moving on the roads, in addition to attacks on Jewish communities and IDF military bases.

The Iranians expect Arabs in the Galilee and Negev to carry out actions against the IDF and the state. Recalling what occurred in Israel in May 2021, we can predict blocking roads, damaging bridges, spilling oil on roads, blocking intersections, damaging high voltage lines, and attacking Jewish communities.

Because the Israel National Guard ​is not operational yet, ​these actions would  cause ​​incredible damage in Israel​​.