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Lebanon, Turkey and Iran take priority
- 02 November 2022
- 10:08 pm
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- 02 November 2022
- 10:08 pm
Benjamin Netanyahu is returning for an unprecedented third round as head of a Likud government in Israel, pledging he will “not embark on unnecessary adventures.” (Photo: Netanyahu Facebook)
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With 99 percent of the votes counted, Netanyahu is expected to win 64 out of 120 seats in the Israeli Knesset, thus making him the most likely next Prime Minister. For the State of Israel, this is a game changer, as Netanyahu and his Likud Party will lead the Israeli right-wing bloc, while the present Prime Minister Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party – who heads the caretaker government – is from the left-wing bloc.
The question remains, how will the election results affect Israeli policy on Turkey, Iran, the Palestinian issue and other regional issues in the Middle East?
When it comes to Israeli-Turkish relations, I believe that things will continue in a positive direction, as the reconciliation between both countries has already been agreed upon and Israel does not need more enemies in the Middle East region. Already, trade relations between both Israel and Turkey have gotten stronger and there is a strong economic incentive for Israel to keep going in a positive direction with Turkey. However, there is still a threat to this, should the situation seriously deteriorate with the Palestinians and during the next Turkish elections.
However, while this government will likely seek to preserve improved Turkish-Israeli relations, Dr. Mordechai Kedar believes that this government will likely try to change the Maritime Border Agreement with Lebanon, where Israel would return disputed waters rich in natural gas to Lebanon: “There will be reframing or rethinking about the agreement with Lebanon. The new government will try to revise this agreement and will try to find ways to correct this agreement.”
As for Iran, Dr. Kedar believes that this regime is on its way out: “There are now clashes between the Iranian Army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards because the army refuses to use force to destroy the demonstrations. If this is correct, I got it from my sources inside of Iran, it is a big blow to the Iranian regime as a state. If the army starts fighting with the IRGC, it means that they can start to get freedom as the state won’t be in one piece. If this really happens, this is a game changer.”
According to him, “Saudi Arabia will feel more confident. Syria will be liberated from the Iranian problem. Lebanon might also behave differently if Iran is now not behind Hezbollah. So, everything in the Middle East might be different or will look different if this information is correct about the clashes between the IRGC and the army. It might take more time and casualties, but this is what I claimed for years that one day Iran will be dismantled. Iran will fall apart.”
In light of Iran’s recent mass human rights violations in attempting to crush the protesters, already the world has moved on from discussing making a nuclear deal with Iran and there are increased calls for regime change.
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Ayoob Kara, Israel’s former Israeli Communication Minister, is willing to discuss the possibility of Israel arming the street protesters in cooperation with the Americans considering this situation in order to make it easier for the protesters to topple the regime. Under the previous government, it would not have happened, as the previous government wanted a reformed nuclear deal with Iran, not regime change.
Dr. Kedar believes that “Today it is not such a hard thing to support the protesters. Iraq is full of arms. The easiest thing is to call someone in Iraq and ask him to gather 200 and 300 guns, and to pay him with bitcoin. No one can know who ordered and paid for it. This is what Israel can do if they want to help them, especially in an area like Iraq when so many arms are running around.”
However, as for the Palestinian issue, this incoming government is likely to do nothing in regards to making gestures for them, although they may crack down on crime in the Arab sector and the terror groups.
Yet, they will proceed forward to make more agreements with other Muslim countries in the framework of the Abraham Accords Agreement. This will strengthen Israel’s hand against Iran and in the region generally, bypassing the Palestinians. The previous government had the opposite policy.
Rachel Avraham is a political analyst working at the Safadi Center for International Diplomacy, Research, Public Relations and Human Rights. She is the author of “Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings at the American, Israeli and Arab Media.”
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Thank you for choosing TheJ.Ca as your source for Canadian Jewish News.
We do news differently!
Our positioning as a Zionist News Media platform sets us apart from the rest. While other Canadian Jewish media are advocating increasingly biased progressive political and social agendas, TheJ.Ca is providing more and more readers with a welcome alternative and an ideological home.
We revealed the incursion of anti-Israel progressive elements such as IfNotNow into our communities. We have exposed the distorted hateful agenda of the “progressive” left political radicals who brought Linda Sarsour to our cities, and we were first to report on many disturbing incidents of Nazi-based hate towards Jews across Canada.
But we can’t do it alone. We need your HELP!
Our ability to thrive and grow in 2020 and beyond depends on the generosity of committed readers and supporters like you.
Monthly support is a great way to help us sustain our operations. We greatly appreciate any contributions you can make to support Jewish Journalism.
We thank you for your ongoing support.
Happy reading!
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