How Will The Invasion Of Ukraine Affect The Middle East?

He claimed: “The US has been historically more supportive of the Kurdish national liberation movement (Iraq and Syria) compared with Russia. In the worst-case scenario, Iran and Turkey will crash both of the Kurdish autonomous regions as the US has to focus more on the rising threats of China and Russia than on the Middle East. The fate of Ukraine under the Russian assault due to its geopolitical importance for both the US and Russia is a good analogy for Kurdistan. Kurds will most likely encounter such a destiny sooner or later. That means, Kurds should play a delicate political game in order for them to not be crushed between authoritarian regional powers and US foreign policy.”

The tripartite relationship between Turkey, Russia and NATO is complex since, on the one hand, Turkey is a member of NATO, and, on the other hand, Turkey under Erdogan follows a foreign policy that frequently might not align with its commitments to NATO. Turkey closed the Black Sea to Russian warships, but Renas believes “the Russian-Turkish relationship under the shadow of NATO remains an open question, especially considering the fact that Turkey would need Russia’s cooperation in Syria. That means, there are threats and opportunities for Kurds depending on the Russian-Turkish relationship.”

“In the second scenario, if Russia fails to take over Ukraine, and even though the Western powers’ sanctions against Russia will hugely damage its economy, Russia will probably target the US interests in the Middle East more aggressively,” he added. “Once again, the regional politics in the Middle East become more unstable. In short, one should expect more political instability in the Middle East in both scenarios.”

“As for Israel, like the Kurds, any decline in the US power in the Middle East is troublesome,” Renas concluded. “Nevertheless, as a strong regional power, Israel has shown that it can manage such changes successfully. An example of such successful management in Israel’s foreign policy is already on display as Israel has followed a delicate balancing act in the Russian assault on Ukraine.”

One local Ukrainian told the Israeli media, “This is not war. This is the intentional murder of the Ukrainian people. Mariupol was completely under siege for a week. There is no light, no heating, no cellular network, and no internet. There is no way out. The humanitarian corridor is a lie, and the Russians don’t let any humanitarian assistance in. There is a shortage of food and medicine.”